IPCC report issued in April 2022 addresses climate change and how we could mitigate the effects. It stresses that the time to act is now or else it will be too late.
So who are these experts that produce climate change warnings?
Dr Paulina Jaramillo is a professor of engineering and public policy as well as the co-director of the green design institute at Carnegie Mellon University. She is also a lead author of the IPCC working group III report Mitigation of Climate Change.
The first IPCC report that came out in August focused on the science underlying the changes that are happening to the climate, so what do we know about those changes
The second report that came out in February focused on what are the impacts of those changes in the climate impacts on natural and human systems as well as opportunities for adaptation.
This report by working group III focuses on what is needed to mitigate the effect of emissions of greenhouse gases that drive climate change.
So what did this report say about where we are compared to where we need to be in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions?
The report suggests we are not on track to limit warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius target that was implemented in the Paris agreement .
In fact annual average annual greenhouse gas emissions during the last decade so since 2010 were the highest in human history.
There is increased evidence of action happening. There have been sustained investments in energy efficiency. We’ve seen reduced rates of deforestation as well as accelerated deployment of renewable energy
Those are good things that have been happening they just need to happen much more rapidly within the next decade.
It is still technically possible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees if we accelerate deployments very rapidly within the next decade.
At the press conference announcing the findings of the report UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said that this report shows a litany of broken climate promises.
It is seven years since the Paris agreement and although things have been happening, progress hasn’t been fast enough and changes have not been happening everywhere.
Financial issues
One of the chapters focused on financing and found that financing in the next decade has to be two to five times larger than it has been in the last decade.
The report also shows that the financing or the transfer of the 100 billion dollars that was committed to transfer to the developing countries has not fully materialized.
These broken promises caused the final draft of the report to be delayed by a couple of days while specific topics in this report faced more scrutiny. Pushback from certain countries caused this delay. There has to be consensus by all members of the delegations to approve each line and some topics cause more controversy to some countries.
Each section has a large group of contributing authors who are invited by the lead authors because of their expertise.
Tensions can arise between experts who have different views and may not speak the same disciplinary language. That can lead to confusion and requires compromise.
The effect of transport on climate change
Currently about 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally come from the transportation sector, That includes land use transportation as well as shipping and aviation.
While other sectors rates of annual increase in emissions are declining or at least their growth rates are declining, transportation’s annual growth rate is actually staying flat around two percent.
Why isn’t transportation seeing the same levels of slowing growth rates and emissions as other sectors?
It’s a combination of factors. We’re still seeing population growth we’re seeing incomes grow which means demand for services increases but also it’s a difficult sector to decarbonize relatively compared to other sectors.
When decarbonizing power plants you have power of individual facilities where you’re trying to decarbonize and there are mechanisms.
If we are trying to decarbonize every car every vehicle on the road, we need to address every vehicle on the road. That means it involves everyone.
It involves the decisions of everyone that moves around or buys things online that have to be delivered.
When we are talking about personal transportation we need to reduce emissions from transporting people from one place to another.
Demand side management is needed. That means reducing the demand of actual travel and so there are intersections there between the transfer sector and the urban sector.
Denser more compact cities with mixed-use neighborhoods can really help reduce the demand for transport services.
If you live closer to your work and closer to where you shop then the travel distances are shorter. You can either walk or bike or even take public transport because the distances are shorter.
There is a big role on the way we design the cities and how that affects our demand.
There’s opportunities for systemic changes like teleworking. The emissions from transport decreased when people had to stay home and so there’s definitely a role for demand side interventions.
For land-based passenger transport the report suggests that electrification offers the largest mitigation potential.
Electrification of land-based passenger transport isn’t just electrifying cars. It is also electrifying two wheelers and three wheelers.
Two wheelers and three wheelers are a big provider of transportation services in developing countries and so electrification of those can also really help.
Electrification of the public transit systems both intra city as well as intercity. In the USA there is not as much rail or public buses. So moving across cities via land is not as robust as in other places.
Investing in that could reduce some of the emissions that are associated with aviation.
What’s holding back electrification of personal vehicles?
Costs were a barrier but costs are really decreasing very rapidly, and will hopefully continue decreasing so that they’re more accessible.
The choices of electric vehicle to buy have been relatively small. The increase of choices of electric vehicles will help.
We still need the infrastructure, the charging infrastructure and so here you have like kind of a chicken and egg problem.
The charging infrastructure will definitely need to be addressed. If we charge our cars with electricity generated with coal that’s not really going to help much so at the same time as we’re deploying electric vehicles and charging infrastructure we need a rapid decarbonization of the transportation system.
Does this report look at sustainable transportation from an equity standpoint?
Some of the equity implications are mentioned. Investing in public transit and making transit more affordable and more accessible will provide more equitable access to service to mobility services.
The literature suggests that there are some potential equitable benefits associated with like shared mobility or on-demand mobility although that could have rebound.
There are co-benefits associated with reduced pollution emissions, those have equity implications as well because we have shown in previous work that vulnerable communities also face more challenges with air pollution.
Big urbanization can help with that. We know that long distance transportation and shipping are much harder to decarbonize than personal transportation.
What solutions does the report offer to reduce emissions in those sectors?
Shipping and aviation in particularly are hard to decarbonize sectors. Electrification may play a small niche role in some short distance flights and ferries.
The findings of the report suggest that to meet the decarbonization targets that are consistent with 1.5 degree there’s definitely going to be a need for alternative low carbon fuels for those sectors.
Those may include sustainably produced biofuels but also hydrogen and derivatives for the shipping sector. An example is ammonia which is a derivative of hydrogen.
Hydrogen produced with low carbon processes may be an option for shipping.
Synthetic fuels which are hydrogen-based fuels that are then converted into synthetic fuels that can drop into the current engines will probably be very crucial for aviation for long distance heavy land-based long distance heavy transport.
So there are improvements in the battery technologies for heavy-duty trucks. Those can potentially be very useful in heavy trucks that have short distances or in mining operations.
Heavy-duty trucks that don’t travel very long distances so electrification of those also is gaining momentum.
For very long distance hauling hydrogen and biofuels and synthetic hydrocarbons may also be needed.
How do we ensure that developing countries get access to the same sorts of technology to help decarbonize their transportation sectors?
The report does have a chapter on financing that talks about the financing challenges.
Financing is a barrier for developing countries.
The technologies that we have for developed countries can be used in developing countries. We need to support their deployment through financing through capacity building.
There has to be the labor force that can support and operate and maintain these low carbon energy systems.
The report does suggest that the gap in financing in developing countries is large and needs to be addressed.
What tools do policymakers have to decarbonize the transportation sector?
The IPCC is not prescriptive so doesn’t focus much on specific policy instruments.
It doesn’t discuss very specific policy instruments in the transport chapter.
These are the options um and it’s now the role of the of the decision makers to decide how to support these systems.
The report suggests we need a portfolio of solutions there’s not one single bullet.
It’s probably going to need a combination of instruments that support the transition.
The IPCC report is long, not something you can read in one sitting.
This isn’t a problem that will be solved in the next week but it is something we need to address soon.
We need to figure out how we can collectively take action if we want to get to the 1.5 degree target.
Sure we need collective action but that also requires each of us to decide what changes we can personally make.
